US 10-year yields rose above 2.0 percent last week. The last time 10-year yields were above 2.0 percent was in July 2019. With skyrocketing inflation and the Fed's upcoming rate hikes in mind, that probably does not sound so crazy. Yet our model estimate for US 10-year yields points in the opposite direction.
We estimate US 10-year yields using the following factors:
- US unemployment rate
- US short-term interest rate
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