Betting on a rebound

NatWest’s latest economic update reviews the UK’s Spring Statement and the broader macro environment, highlighting policy adjustments, inflation pressures, and early signs of recovery.

Key Insights:

• Fiscal Headroom Restored: £14bn in fiscal savings through welfare cuts and efficiency measures; OBR growth forecast for 2025 downgraded from 2% to 1%.
• Persistent Inflation: Headline CPI eased to 2.8%, but services inflation remains high at 5%, risking slower BoE rate cuts.
• Global Concerns: U.S. tariffs and spending cuts pose external risks; Eurozone surveys signal sluggish demand.

Access the full report for detailed economic forecasts and market implications.