Oil Outlook: Why Supply Strength and Demand Fragility Cap Long-Term Price Risk

In this June 2025 Strategist’s Corner, MFS Investment Management’s Robert Almeida explains why the likelihood of structurally higher oil prices remains low, despite recent geopolitical volatility.

• Supply remains robust, with OPEC+ spare capacity, vast reserves, and flexible U.S. shale output offering buffers against price spikes.

• Demand faces structural headwinds from high debt, demographic drag, and inflation-linked consumption pressures, limiting upside.

• MFS favors energy companies with high-quality acreage, low-cost production, and strong operational execution, using valuation grounded in debt-adjusted cash flows.

For investors seeking clarity beyond headlines, the full report offers a disciplined lens on oil fundamentals and energy allocation.