Don’t read after dark!

As expected, the ECB did not engage in any meaningful forward guidance beyond the rate cut it provided last week. We consider that keeping the list and characterisation of the downside risks to growth and upside risks to inflation largely unchanged relative to July could be easily challenged given the dataflow over the summer. This “steady boat” approach reflects in our view a difficulty to bridge disagreements across the Governing Council. In these circumstances, we are surprised to see that the market is still pricing 11bps worth of a cut in October. We stick to our guns and do not expect this before December. T