Tariffs Temper Growth Outlook as Labour Markets Show Strain

NatWest’s latest economic commentary assesses the delicate balance between transatlantic trade détente, persistent inflation, and signs of a cooling U.S. labour market.

• The EU–US trade agreement eases tensions, reducing tariffs on €780bn in goods and unlocking major energy and investment flows—but key levies on steel remain.

• U.S. job growth slowed to a post-pandemic low, while inflation edged up due to tariff-driven price pressures, complicating the Fed’s rate path.

• Eurozone growth decelerated after pre-tariff demand faded, though domestic resilience and policy clarity offer cautious optimism.

Is policy stability enough to offset geopolitical and inflationary headwinds? Read the full report to explore the macro and market implications.