Antifragile Energy: Why U.S. Renewables Thrive Through Policy Shocks

UBS Asset Management’s July 2025 infrastructure report applies Taleb’s “antifragility” lens to U.S. renewables, arguing that the sector continues to adapt and strengthen despite the disruptive One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB).

• Resilient through cycles: Repeated policy threats—from tax credit rollbacks to tariff hikes—have catalyzed stronger financing, execution, and supply chain strategies over the past 20 years.

• OBBB impact mixed: While key solar and wind credits are phased out, incentives for storage, nuclear, and carbon capture remain, preserving multi-tech momentum.

• Structural tailwinds endure: Soaring electricity demand from AI and electrification supports long-term growth, even under reduced subsidies.

Could this era of volatility ultimately fortify the investment case for clean infrastructure? The full report offers a compelling framework for long-term allocators.