Tariffs, Tensions, and Trade-offs: A Global Outlook Under Pressure

Northern Trust’s July 2025 Global Economic Outlook explores how persistent protectionism, softening growth, and inflation asymmetries are shaping central bank strategies and cross-border investment risk.

• U.S. policy turns inward: High tariffs and fiscal expansion aim to reshore production but risk long-term drag; the Fed is split, with rate cuts expected to be gradual and politically contested.

• Global divergence deepens: The eurozone sees easing ahead amid weak demand; the UK faces stagflation risks, while China balances deflationary pressures with selective stimulus.

• Trade realignment accelerates: Tariff regimes and fragmented deals challenge global supply chains, with investment implications across regions and sectors.

Are your portfolios positioned for a multi-speed world shaped by geopolitics and macro friction? The full report breaks down regional dynamics, policy paths, and forecast revisions.